SECURITY INTELLIGENCE
Real-time collection and analysis of risk data to provide detailed, actionable insight that reduces operational risks.
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM POLITICAL RISK
Detailed, probability-based political risk environment forecasts covering 3 month, 6 month and 1 year outlooks.
POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS & INFLUENCE MAPPING
Insights into political and private-sector influence dynamics and the priorities of stakeholders.
RISK ANALYSIS AND THREAT ASSESSMENT
Accurate risk quantification across risk categories, with real-time monitoring on a country and regional level.
CORRUPTION AND DUE DILIGENCE CHECKS
Bespoke investigations into individuals or entities to protect clients against reputational risks, and ensure compliance with anti-corruption legislation.
ANGOLA BRIEFING
A twice-weekly news update and analysis on Angola’s political economy, produced in collaboration with Zitamar Consulting LLP. Click here for more details.
In 2017 we analysed how Congo’s new mining code (which was signed into law in June 2018) would impact on operations for one of our clients with extensive investments in the south and east of the country.
President Obiang is Africa’s longest-serving head of state. Approaching his fortieth year in power in 2019, we analyzed the medium term political risks associated with a transition of power to his son Teodorín. We also provided our client with potential alternative scenarios and quantified their potential impacts on international companies doing business in Equatorial Guinea.
Since the EMATUM scandal first broke in 2015, we have been closely monitoring the situation, helping bondholders, government subcontractors and financial service industry professionals to quantify default risks, and map out scenarios based on President Nyusi’s policies.
In the runup to Angola’s 2018 bond issuances, we performed a macroeconomic analysis of the country, with particular reference to President Lourenço’s stated election aims. Using an extensive network of local contributors in the public and private sectors, we also undertook a deep-dive of national oil company Sonangol’s finances, to give investors a clearer picture of the risks associated with the Angolan market.
After the Presidential elections in December 2018, we helped our client to map out the changed political economy in the country, as well as the influence dynamics within the energy sector. Due diligence investigations of local joint venture partners were also undertaken.
Our unparalleled network of contributors along the coast of Somalia allowed us to help this insurance client understand the shifting risk dynamics associated with insuring vessels for transit through the Gulf of Aden.
Through a detailed human intelligence gathering process, we helped our client map out the flows of illegal weapons and militants across the Gulf of Aden. Research involved the countries of Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen and Iran, discussing both state and non-state actors.
In close collaboration with our Mozambique-based team, we provide monthly security intelligence and threat assessments relating to the ongoing Islamic insurgency in the far north of the country (including cross-border coverage into Tanzania). Our network of contributors in Cabo Delgado means that we are able to provide real-time updates for clients, well before traditional news services or other Europe and US-based risk consultancies.